Critiquing the APC Blueprint

Critiquing the APC Blueprint

 Muhammadu  Buhari and  Bola Tinubu

Today, Nigeria is in a very bad shape. Its many challenges have been seriously compounded mainly by very bad (not poor) leadership at all levels and in every arm of government and leadership. The so called foreign players have done even more damage than the home based players could ever have dreamt of doing. There is no political party that can offer “we the people”, a government comprising of people whose words or promises we can ever take seriously. They are aware that we know this and we also are aware that they know this fact as well. But the irony is that even though they are aware that we know that they know, they still went ahead to present to Nigerians a manifesto which can obviously not be supported by facts. The first step to building a serious nation is for the leaders not to deceive the people.

To be fair, the APC should be commended for making an effort to present to Nigerians a manifesto which is a departure from the old practice of promising the people fresh air and free broomsticks in return for their votes. Unfortunately, the APC has set the bar too low for us to celebrate this development. We shudder at the thought of what their PDP colleagues would soon release as their own party’s manifesto.

Even the living dead know that the five (ok six) main challenges (nightmares to be precise) confronting our nation, as a result of the failed leadership at all levels, are corruption, insecurity, poor power supply, lack (yes lack) of an economy, unemployment (a symptom of the others) and the odious and abominable overheads bill of the executive and legislative arms of the Federal Government.

According to the manifesto, the party has predicated it’s anti corruption drive on the disclosure of all contracts above N10m at the Local Government level and N100m at the upper levels of government. It also promised that the Freedom of Information Act would be fully implemented to give the public better access to government data. This is a pathetic and shameful attempt at fighting corruption because full transparency is the most important of the three critical weapons for fighting corruption in these times. What is required to fight corruption today are transparency laws and procedures that make it mandatory to inform the Nigerian people, on a Weekly basis, of every Kobo and cent of revenue accruing to all arms and levels of government together with the explicit details of every single naira and dollar that is spent by every government office, institution or agency. This information must be made available even without the public requesting for it. It is crucial that “we the people” should always be the ultimate watchmen over our nation’s money and not any Mrs Okonjo-Iweala or Alhaji Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. From it’s manifesto, it is obvious that the APC has no plans whatsoever to fight corruption.

The party plans to create state and local government police while urgently increasing the number of police officers and also improving their training. In addition, it intends to “establish” a “special” squad for the myriad of security problems plaguing Nigeria. It is obvious that the party is totally confused because it is not possible to establish any LASTMA like squad that would take over the functions and responsibility of the Army, Air Force, Navy and Police as stated in their manifesto. Furthermore, how can a party that is bent on state and community based policing be planning to increase the size of the federal police force? One of the key benefits of state police is the streamlining of the Federal Police. If this is how the APC plans to address the problem of insecurity, then it is only a matter of time before the Boko Haram expands it operational area into the Niger Delta.

According to the manifesto, the APC would improve power supply from the current 5,000 MW to at least 20,000 MW of electricity within four years and further increase the level to 50,000 MW with a view to achieving uninterrupted power supply within ten years. It will also rely on the development of renewable energy sources such as solar and wind. To achieve this goal, the party would have to increase power supply by 15,000MW within a period of four years. This would require the APC to first ensure that currently ongoing power projects of about 4,000MW are completed and then the balance of 11000MW are initiated and completed within four years. Gigantic funding of about US$33 billion would be required through public and private investments which cannot be sourced in a period of two or three years. It is absolutely impossible to design, construct and install 11,000MW of power plants together with ancillary component such as gas pipelines within the balance period of two years. The truth is that a party that cannot write a decent manifesto can never achieve such a feat.

In previous times, an economy could be described as the aggregation of the random activities of economic units in a country. However, in modern times, an economy is the aggregation of pre-targeted activities of economic units which are the result of well thought out and clearly defined macroeconomic planning. E.g. Dubai, China etc. Based on modern thinking, any country, like Nigeria, that is not implementing an economic plan aimed at directly impacting its economic units positively does not have an economy. According to the APC manifesto, the party plans to turn around the economy by making Nigeria the largest exporter of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) in the world, creating growth centers through the promotion of industrialization in all regions, ensuring that key agricultural products such as cocoa and rubber go through value addition as opposed to exporting raw materials and guarantee a minimum price for selected crops. This is obviously not a well thought out plan and it is devoid of modern economic thinking.

Economies are now categorized into three broad sectors namely Industrial, Service and Agriculture. It is based on the desired sectoral proportions that the economic plans, projects and policies are then designed. For example, the GDP of the USA in 2013 was estimated to be Agriculture (1.1%) Industry (19.5%) and Services (79.4%). That is why the country is desirous of better trade relations with the European Union, while strongly pushing for the use of renewable energy solutions. It is obvious that by increasing the percentage of the industrial sector in its GDP, it will create a lot more jobs than any other sector can. The APC also needs to realize that Nigeria can never be the largest exporter of LNG in the world because other LNG exporting nations were busy investing billions of dollars in pipelines and plants over many decades, while we were busy doing nothing. Also a country that cannot secure a pipeline from Escravos to Lagos, cannot secure one from Eket to Brussels. We can never even catch up with other major gas exporters. Furthermore, the solution to industrialization is not building of new regional industrial centres, rather it is the revival of the numerous industries across the country that bad government policies and programmes have rendered moribund. Lastly, the APC needs to understand that you cannot force western nations, in the name of value adding, to buy chocolate from Nigeria when what they want is raw cocoa which they can then process by themselves into high quality chocolates.

The party intends to directly create one million new jobs annually by embarking on vocational training, entrepreneurial and skills acquisition scheme for graduates along with the creation of Small Business Loan Guarantee Scheme. In addition, it plans to lift an additional two million citizens into the middle income class through home ownership within the first year in government and one million more annually by enacting a national mortgage system that will lend at single digit interest rates. These statements are embarrassingly ludicrous and obviously the product of a half baked mind. It is not possible to create one million jobs in one year through training because it will require a very huge budget, large number of qualified manpower and training facilities across the nation. With an average class consisting of fifty persons and running for a period of three weeks, a minimum of 1,176 classes would have to hold on a daily basis for a whole year in order to train a million people. The logistics are unimaginable. Furthermore, vocational and entrepreneurial training only results in jobs within a healthy economic environment where the key sectors are thriving. The party needs to also understand that mortgages do not lift people from the lower income class into the middle income class because affordability is a necessary precondition for obtaining mortgages. Rather, it is after people arrive in the middle income class through gainful employment that they can then afford to obtain mortgages for the purpose of wealth creation.

Finally, the manifesto pays a lot of emphasis on running a leaner government structure probably with the intention of reducing the huge overhead bill of the executive arm of government at the centre. It is shameful that the manifesto failed to address the overheads problem in the legislative arm of the federal government neither did it expatiate on how it will reduce the size of the federal civil service. To add insult to injury, the manifesto states clearly that the party will embark on a recruitment drive for overseas based personnel at much higher pay levels. How this will result in a reduction in federal government overheads is a complete mystery especially when you take into consideration the party’s plan to establish at least six new universities of science and technology with satellite campuses in various states, establish technical colleges and vocational centers in the thirty six states of the federation and even establish six centers of excellence to address the needs of special education. Maybe the party does not realize that teachers in federal institutions earn salaries.

A key objective of the manifesto of an opposition party is to subtly highlight the failures of the incumbent party while proffering distinct solutions which makes the electorate to have faith in the opposition. The APC manifesto failed woefully in this regards. Even as a working document, it is poorly constructed. It is not itemized and has no built in timelines. There is no evidence that any of the APC incumbent governors were ever committed to the objectives or programmes contained in the manifesto. For example, the party plans to make education more affordable but Lagos, its flagship state, is busy increasing school fees. Worse still, the governors failed to use the beautiful opportunity of the launching to openly commit to the Nigerian people on any of the programmes. The party also failed to produce a concise extract of the manifesto which can be used to educate the voting public on the direction the party intends to take the nation. While commending the APC for the effort it has made to produce this document, it is important to state clearly that the good people of our great nation expect a lot more from its future leaders.
 

- Onabolu is with the New Nigeria Economic Group